Supply and demand. It makes all the difference. Teachers have been preaching to us about it since 5th form but sometimes we just forget the basics.

It’s easy to pick on the Auckland property market, I know I certainly have. After years of ridiculous growth, surely it was bound to endure a correction?

North Shore City Median Sale Price, 2010 – 2017North Shore median sale price 2010-2017

How could prices possibly keep going up? The change to 40% LVR’s for investors certainly pegged things back in November 2016, but then what happens? You through in an election which scares the crap out of everyone. Suddenly no one wants to go on the market.

Take away a whole lot of supply and what happens to prices?

Despite fears to the contrary, the median sale price on the North Shore actually went up over the past 3 months. Not only did it go up, it actually improved significantly, by 6.7% on the back of drastically reduced turnover.

We all battened down the hatches while we waited to see who would end up in charge. It was the brave ones who decided to go ahead and move regardless who were rewarded.

Here are the exact figures (source: REINZ stats)

August to October 2017:

Median sale price: $1,061,500    (up 7.2% vs. May – July quarter)
Total number of sales: 916    (down 19.5%)
Median days to sell: 37    (3 days less)
Median % over CV: +41%     (same as prev. quarter)

And the previous quarter figures…

May – July 2017:

Median sale price: $990,000
Total number of sales: 1138
Median days to sell: 40
Median % over CV: +41%

Will this trend continue? Well, that’s the real question we are faced with right now.

What’s going to change things? Since November 1st, the floodgates have opened.

Stat of the day:

There are 1317 available listings on the North Shore right now (according to trademe on 15/11/17). 2 months ago there were 910.

A 45% increase in 60 days.

Of the listings that are active on trademe, 417 went live in the past 15 days!!


What’s going to happen next? I’ll give you a hint: It’s all to do with supply and demand…